LAST UPDATED: 9 JANUARY 1998
Training course at the United Nations, Division for Social Policy and Development
December 16, 1997; January 27 and 28, February 2 and 3, 1998
Opening session, December 16, 1997
A basic function of the United Nations is policy analysis leading to the adoption of internationally agreed norms and the promotion of new policy and program approaches to address global problems. To perform this function, the Secretariat mobilizes and analyzes information and make proposals for international policy. It is called upon to perform this function in the social development. The seminar will consider: (1) how to define policy questions in more operational terms , (2) the use of quantitative methods to explore policy relationships and (3) formulation of policy and programme proposals based on the analysis.
Co-Directors:
Prof. Dennis Smith, Robert F. Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University
John R. Mathiason, Adjunct Professor, Wagner School and Managing Director, AIMS
(1) Diagram the model of a causation underlying a problem of interest, then:
(2) Diagram a model of an intervention intended to address that problem or--more likely--some facet of that problem, and
(3) Determine what types of measurements would be necessary, desirable and possible for the model of causation and the model of intervention.
(1) Diagram the model of a causation underlying a problem of interest
The steps in the process for the first part of the assignment are:
1. Treat the "problem" as the dependent variable (Z), the end of a causal chain. Enter into the model the immediate cause or causes of the problem (X,Y);
2. Then, identify causes (U,V,W) of the immediate causes identified above; and
3. Continue working backward until the causes identified are too remote or diffuse to be of much policy interest.
(2) Diagram a model of an intervention intended to address that problem or--more likely--some facet of that problem
The steps in the process for the second part of the assignment are:
1. On the left side of the model enumerate the major elements (A,B,C) of the intervention (program or policy);
2. On the right side of the model list the desired effects of the intervention (X,Y,Z). Tentatively draw arrows between the elements of the intervention and the intended effects. Read each arrow drawn (eg.connecting A to X); and
3. Read each relationship defined by an arrow as a causal statement (eg. "A causes X"). Wherever that reading strains credulity because some other intervening factor is involved, add that intervening factor to the model and continue the process until all major intervening causal factors have been added.
A review of the two causal models distributed in the seminar can be used to see how this works. In model drawn by Carol Weiss The iintervention was ostensibly simple (one element): place "Residents on the Management Board." The intended effect was "Improve condition of property." She then identifies fourteen intervening causal factors linking the intervention and the intended effect. Similarly, there are many causal links specified as intervening between "cash crop production" and "mortality" in the WHO model. (Note: In the WHO model the analysis focuses on a chain of consequences following the intended effect of another policy, "the unexamined consequence of economic development policy on health," the logic of the analyis is the same as in Weiss's examination of intended effects. )
Once the models (conceptual analalyis in the triad) have made explicit the connecting elements it is easier to see which factors need to be measured to complete the empirical part of the analytic process.
(3) Determine what types of measurements would be necessary, desirable and possible for the model of causation and the model of intervention.
For each of the main components of your two models (causation and intervention), try to indicate what types of measurement could be used to verify or describe your assumptions. This should involve asking a series of questions:
1. How can you operationalize the elements of your models (i.e. how can you measure each of them).
2. What are the measurement assumptions involved? (I.e. how were they collected, what type of numbers are involved).
3. Are there data currently available to carry out these operationalizations? How valid are they?
4. What additional information would be needed to make the diagnosis more precise and accurate?
5. What would be valid measurements and how could the data be obtained?
The results of the assignment should be sent to Prof. Smith by January 20, either directly at smithde@is.nyu.edu or c/o mathiason@intlmgt.com.
In order to illustrate many of the points made, we will use an extended example of a policy issue that can be approached using the tools presented in the seminar. The provision of care of adequate quality to persons needing it, including children, persons with disabilities and older people, raise a host of policy issues. There are economic issues of social safety nets, demographic questions, normative issues of responsibility and questions of the tradeoff between State, market and community approaches to solutions. Some of the issues are set out in a short draft paper entitled The Caregiving Crisis is Upon Us. Another take on this is found in an excerpt from Robert Reich's 1992 study, The Work of Nations: Preparing for 21st Century Capitalism. The OECD has done a study of the policy implications of the question, entitled Social Protection for Dependent Elderly People.
Statistics on the number of persons with disabilities in the United States have been assembled by the United States Census. A perceptive analysis of the 1991-1992 data showed many of the consequences of disability for the household. The most recent study, entitled Americans with Disabilities, 1994-1995 contains information on sources of assistance, as well as the relationship between disability and age.
To obtain information about disability, it is necessary to define the terms and the theoretical context. The World Health Organization has done so through an adjunct to its International Classification of Diseases (ICD) dealing with the consequences of disease that lead to what the WHO now calls "disablement". It is revising its classification scheme which is currently called the International Classification of Impairment, Disability and Handicap (ICIDH) to give it improved policy relevance. The new revision is in its Beta phase and the explanatory material is helpful in understanding how a new concept is evolved.
An increasing amount of statistical data is being posted on the Internet. Some of this will be used later in the course, but it is worthwhile surfing the sites just be see what is there. Here are a few starting points.
United States statistics can be tracked through a special site called Fedstats which is really a gateway to the statistics stored on the servers of over 70 federal entities. There is a wide coverage, including, for example, disability statistics, family growth, income of the aging population, and the number of generals and admirals in the U.S. military.
Comparative international statistics can also be found in different place. For example, the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics has employment and other data for a number of countries. The OECD maintains an extensive collection of on-line statistics. For example, if one wants to find out how UN pay trends compare with the OECD countries, one can check the relevant study on the question.
